The ‘Diagonal Spoke’ defines innovative methodologies and proofs of concept for producing fine scale and target-oriented predictions of future climate and weather, hydrologic and marine relevant variables for the risk assessment, mitigation and adaptation.
The inter-sectorial nature of DS makes the interactions with VS1, VS2, VS3, VS4 evident since from the declaration of its objectives, which effects are clearly monitored and measured in the anthropized systems (interaction with TS1, TS2, TS3). In detail, the scientific goal for the Spoke DS is to develop innovative concepts and models for producing quantitative predictions of future climate and weather (atmospheric), hydrologic (large scale river flow and groundwater recharge) and marine (wave regime, sea circulation) relevant variables, along with uncertainty assessment.
Predictions will be targeted to the most relevant variables that play a key role for the assessment, mitigation and adaptation of the risks considered in the project, including (but not limited to): flash floods, large scale floods, extreme winds and sea weather, short- and long-term droughts, air pollution and related health risks, heat waves, land subsidence, groundwater extraction-induced seismicity, degradation of the ecologic environments and impact on human health.
In addition, the Spoke aims to develop climate-related hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators and to introduce statistical approaches based on the analysis and fitting of historical data to account for uncertainty assessment for prediction. The ultimate goal of DS Spoke is to set the scientific basis for development of advanced decision support systems to proficiently integrate climate services into decision making for mitigation of – and adaptation to – specific hazards
