In Spoke VS3 the activities aim at
- developing advanced methods and automatic workflows for the detection and characterization of the seismicity to define high-resolution catalogues and infer fault mechanics and geometry and the role of fluids in earthquake production;
- integrate deep knowledge on faults from earthquakes with structural geology surficial observations; develop methods for 4D-imaging of fault systems and volcano edifices, including rock-physics modelling;
- improve numerical simulations of earthquake nucleation and propagation of seismic cycle and deformation; design and build advanced analogue laboratories to study earthquake preparation and fractures at micrometer scale;
- develop methods and technologies for earthquake forecast, early warning and rapid response within the occurrence of a large earthquake.
Simultaneously, the Spoke plans to
- develop and implement new real-time sensor technologies to monitor the emission and volumetric concentration of ash in the plume of Italian volcanoes as well as the effect on climate of volcanic activity;
- develop methods for the quantitative definition and assessment of the volcanic risk of explosive volcanoes;
- implement and apply numerical simulation studies on ash dispersion and investigations on the socio-economic impact of these events;
- develop methods for the quantitative estimation of volcanic eruption impact parameters associated with the damage potential of pyroclastic flows;
- implement eruptive scenarios with probabilistic definition of the scale of the expected eruptions and models of the eruptive systems.
An input/output exchange protocol will be applied with the vertical Spokes for the assessment of the risks specifically connected to compound, interacting and cascading events at different scale and with considering short- and long-term socio-economic effects (TS3). A further element of strong interaction concerns the definition of performance-based solutions to mitigate seismic risk and increase the resilience of urban systems and cultural heritage (e.g. with indirect actions mainly aimed at the climate change mitigation by favouring the decarbonisation and reduction of energy consumption, and by reducing the use of raw materials through offering effective alternatives to demolition and reconstruction).
