The primary objects of Spoke VS2 are permanent deformations at ground levels:
a) slope failures;
b) sinkholes;
c) subsidence/uplift caused by soil consolidation and liquefaction.
Its activities aim at defining and parametrizing the weight of three macro-categories of factors, i.e. predisposing-, preparatory- and triggering factors; at developing methods and procedures for reconstructing the quantitative scenarios of ground instability (via probabilistic and/or deterministic approaches) caused by varying environmental conditions in subaerial, and submarine environments, also evaluating their impact on the built environment from local to national scales.
The scale of the investigated processes ranges from local- to regional-scale, where paroxysms of greater proportions can evolve into extreme and catastrophic events, including debris avalanches and the morpho-dynamics of submarine canyons. From the perspective of multiple risk analysis, effects related to ground instabilities have to be investigated considering both their combination and potential cascading effects, which could become effective up to the slope scale.
In this regard a relevant interaction is planned with VS1, VS3 and DS to refine advanced approaches devote to simulate the impact of preparatory (climatic action, channel and coastal dynamics and anthropogenic pressure) to triggering factors (earthquakes, volcanic activity, intense rainfall, rapid snowmelt and anthropogenic activity). The interaction with Transversal Spokes (TS1, TS2, TS3) will be devoted to improve the analysis of anthropic stressors responsible ground instabilities; to achieve the shared objective of vulnerability reduction and risk mitigation through engineering and urban planning solutions and to enhance the risk communication to threatened communities aimed at the better understanding of the legal-economical and psychological response to social and cultural consequences.
