As for the Spoke VS1, the actions undertaken to tackle the three main drivers herein considered (flooding; droughts; coastal flooding) focus specifically on:
- improving the identification in space and time of key physical and societal drivers of changing risk processes;
- improving risk predictability from short to long time scales;
- showing the value of the ensuing seamless prediction tools for effective water-related risk management.
The spoke will develop a validated proof of concept for a Digital Twin to provide a more holistic risk management approach to better address trade-offs and synergies between different water-related hazards, measures, decision objectives, and different temporal and spatial scales. An input/output exchange protocol will be applied with meteorological/hydrological/hydraulic thematic areas to develop statistics of relevant variables (precipitation, land use, exposure) in support of modelling and in synergy with VS2, to improve physics-based formulations of water-induced debris-flow models. The protocol will be co-designed with to the Transversal Spokes (TS1, TS2, TS3) to ensure the interoperability of models developed within and across the thematic areas and to improve the ability to describe and simulate cascading effects and interconnections among critical infrastructures, such as energy or transport networks (Urban and metropolitan settlements; Critical Infrastructures; Communities’ resilience to risks). This approach will permit to develop effective multi-risk mitigation/adaptation strategies to improve the resilience of urban, industrial, agricultural areas and natural ecosystems to climate and environmental changes and ensuing flood/drought risk.
